Last blog I wrote about Arizona being a leader in population gain due to our job growth, housing market, and weather. So that raises the question – which state had the most outbound moves in 2019? For the second consecutive year New Jersey lost the most people. Apparently the Garden State isn’t where a lot people want to live right now despite all the good things that state has to offer. Maybe the Chamber of Commerce’s new slogan should be “There’s Plenty of Room in New Jersey”.
The numbers show that Arizona continues to be popular with people from elsewhere, taking in 2.2 million new residents from other states since 2010 to 2018. Job growth, Arizona’s steady economy and lifestyle are the major reasons that people say they are attracted to our state. The highest traffic was between neighboring California, with Texas in second place (137,320 people). Illinois sent 102,897, which is which makes sense considering the number of Chicagoans here. A surprise to me was the 127,772 people Washington sent south to our state since 2010. All these numbers put Arizona in the top five of states with the most inbound moves.
Yes summers can be hot here, but I’m talking about Arizona residential real estate, not the weather. Forbes analyzed over 2,000 cities and then focused on the 200 largest housing markets. Arizona cities ended up taking 8 of the top 25 spots on Forbes list of the hottest U.S. residential real estate markets.
As we move into fall, the number of homes sold lessens in the Phoenix metro area. But as reported by Realtor.com, the housing market in some areas of Arizona actually improve this time of year. For example, Tucson sees a modest improvement. And in hottest areas of the state, such Yuma the market improves significantly, for obvious reasons – its not 125 degrees! Bullhead City with its scorching temperatures should be similar to Yuma. What is typically the busiest month in the Valley of the Sun? June.
Condo construction nationwide in the 1st quarter comprised only 5.5% of multifamily housing — the lowest ratio since the Commerce Department began tracking this data in 1974. Historically, condo construction averages around 24%. In the metro Phoenix area in 2014, the condo share of the marketplace stood at 5.16% of overall new housing activity. The factors hampering the condo market’s recovery is that young adults (condos typically cater to entry-level buyers) have chosen rentals instead. In addition, developers say the unavailability of construction loans that are more than 50% loan to value are limiting the supply of condos they can build.
Joel Naroff, a Philadelphia economist, was honored by Arizona State University in New York City on Thursday. An economist, he was honored for being one of the most accurate forecasters in the country. He gave his view on the housing market, its foreclosures and tightwad buyers.
He stated that things could turn around next year if consumers, banks, business and investors would just stop overreacting. While he said it’s impossible to be absolutely accurate in today’s weird economy, he believes that once people start to see that things aren’t getting worse sometime next year, they’ll start shopping again vigorously.
“’While there is a lot of reason to be concerned right now, I think people are overreacting to the situation. When the psychology changes, you will wind up getting a stronger reaction in the economy than basic economic factors would argue for.”
In other words, overreaction led to paralysis, but when things don’t get worse, a buying rebound should result.
Obviously when the masses start buying again, the best deals will go first and all prices will go up. So stay ahead of the curve and plan to buy now, so you don’t end up missing the “when things were cheap” boat.
Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors, was selected by ASU’s University’s WP. Carey School of Business to receive the 2008 Lawrence R. Klein Award. The honor recognizes him as having the most accurate predictions from 2004 through 2007 among 50 economists’ who forecast for the Blue Chip Economic Indicators published by Aspen publishers.
The ASU business school judges and sponsors the national competition and also produces its own Arizona Blue Chip Economic Forecast.